Focused Most Probability Estimation (TMLE) helps you clarify patterns the place different methods fall brief
Neural networks can spot patterns, correlations, and developments with gorgeous accuracy. However on the subject of answering ‘Why did this occur?’ they’re as clueless as a parrot mimicking human speech.
They’ll offer you predictions, positive — however strive asking them for an evidence, and also you’ll be left looking at a black field.
This limitation isn’t distinctive to neural networks. Correlation-based strategies like linear regression and even superior instruments like Propensity Score Matching can not get to the core of causation-based developments in complicated knowledge. That may be a drawback when decision-makers (learn: your managers) demand actionable enterprise insights and never geeky stats that solely make nerds joyful.
Susceptible to contradicting myself, right here’s a really geeky topic for you: Focused Most Probability Estimation (TMLE). The factor is, TMLE is the very best of each worlds. It permits you to mess around with numbers as a lot as your nerdy mind wishes, but it surely additionally makes your managers joyful by producing enterprise insights.
Primarily, you get the rigor of causal inference plus the pliability of machine studying, This…