Your guide to the US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown.

It’s presidential debate evening within the US — remember to take a look at FT.com this night for our reside protection! Within the meantime, let’s speak about:

• What to anticipate in tonight’s debate

• A defence government’s Trump troubles

• Freight firms’ tariff warnings

Get the popcorn prepared — tonight marks Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s first face-to-face assembly in 4 years.

The 2 will sq. off in Atlanta, Georgia, at 9pm ET in a debate hosted by CNN. Here are five flashpoints to look out for [free to read].

1. Health for workplace

With simply two commercial breaks and no ready supplies allowed, we’ll get the prospect to evaluate the candidates’ stamina. At 81, Biden’s been tormented by questions on his bodily and psychological health — and Trump, 78, will not be a lot youthful.

Their first go-round in 2020 was notoriously unruly. Trump continually interrupted his opponent (which in the end damage the then-president) and brought about Biden to snap: “Will you shut up, man?”

2. Trump’s felony conviction

Biden has been hesitant to hit Trump on his lengthy record of authorized points, together with his current New York conviction on 34 prison counts. Nevertheless, Democrats have been calling Trump a “convicted felon” extra ceaselessly.

Going after Trump’s authorized dramas poses some danger to Biden — his household remains to be reeling from the current conviction of his son, Hunter Biden, for possessing a gun illegally.

3. The destiny of US democracy

Biden has pressured that this election poses an existential risk to US democracy. He’s prone to remind viewers that Trump refused to concede defeat in 2020 — and of the following riot.

Moderators may create a key second by asking each males whether or not they’d settle for the 2024 election outcomes.

4. The financial system

Inflation will probably be a giant matter — anticipate Trump responsible greater residing prices on Biden.

The president will most likely level to a robust labour market and record-high inventory costs throughout his time period.

5. Immigration, battle and abortion

Trump has battered Biden over a surge in immigration throughout the US-Mexico border and can most likely be aggressive on this entrance tonight.

He’s additionally prone to hit the Democrat over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza — portray the president as a warmonger and himself as peacemaker. Biden should reply fastidiously so he doesn’t deepen Democratic divisions over his assist for Israel in its battle towards Hamas.

Biden, in the meantime, can take intention at Trump over abortion, for the reason that latter likes to take credit score for the Supreme Courtroom overturning Roe vs Wade.

Marketing campaign clips: the newest election headlines

Behind the scenes

Traditionally, Republican administrations have been hawkish on defence spending, which is sweet for business, however I lately sat down with a defence business government who’s anxious a couple of potential Trump administration — notably because it pertains to company range and inclusion.

“We’ve had plenty of conversations with Trump transition officers which were reasonably horrifying,” the manager stated.

For the reason that total defence enterprise rests on Pentagon contracts, the corporate worries {that a} Trump-led authorities may attempt to push tradition battle points throughout procurement. With D&I, “are they going to punish firms like us [where] . . . creating an setting the place all our workers [are] welcomed is vital?”

Executives at this firm have had discussions with these in Trump’s orbit who’ve informed them:

“Hey, we checked out your board — there’s extra Democrats than Republicans.” That stuff’s terrifying. That’s not how this nation ought to work.

However regardless of this government’s issues, the individual maintained that “there’s such a broad vary of potentialities that we’re really not doing any situation planning”. And, in the end, “I feel our bias could be for cut up authorities”, the manager added.

Datapoint

US protectionism is within the air, and freight executives are not happy about it. 

Trade leaders have stated that Biden’s sweeping new tariffs on Chinese language imports — and people proposed by Trump — would enhance inflation and hurt the US freight sector. They’ve warned that the candidates’ insurance policies could be a burden on shoppers and companies.

Their anxiousness comes after the Cass freight shipments index, which measures North American shipments, fell to an virtually four-year low final month. The index measuring whole {dollars} spent on freight transportation has dropped virtually 30 per cent since its August 2022 peak.

“We’re in what we within the business name a ‘freight recession’,” Dave Broering, president of Built-in Logistics, informed the FT’s Martha Muir. Whereas some huge cash is being thrown at chip manufacturing, there’s a droop in different US manufacturing sectors.

Trump’s and Biden’s guarantees to guard US manufacturing from competitors overseas are a major a part of their pitches to blue-collar employees in swing states resembling Michigan and Wisconsin.

Unemployment within the transportation and warehousing sector rose to five.5 per cent in Could from 4.7 per cent in April, in keeping with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Viewpoints

• Katy Waldman analyses the incoherence of both Trump and Biden — “two singularly inarticulate politicians” — and what it tells us about their possibilities tonight. (The New Yorker)

• Biden ought to be focusing extra on the threat Trump poses to the economy — resembling his proposed insurance policies bringing a recession by the center of subsequent yr — and fewer on what he may do to democracy, writes Edward Luce.

• Martin Wolf says enterprise leaders are wrong to dismiss fears of a Trump return to the White Home.