Elon Musk formally endorsed Donald Trump for president of the US on July 13, 2024, shortly after Trump survived an assassination attempt. Musk, a billionaire expertise entrepreneur, has made groundbreaking contributions in multiple industries, notably space travel and exploration.
Even earlier than Musk’s endorsement, Trump was reportedly contemplating giving the billionaire an advisory role if elected for a second time period. With Musk’s public support and financial backing, it now appears much more seemingly that Trump would provide him an official place in his administration.
As somebody who research space and international relations, I’m concerned about how Musk may affect U.S. space policy if Trump wins in November. Their partnership may considerably form the way forward for U.S. area exploration and protection, in addition to shift the steadiness of energy between the private and non-private sectors in area.
Present U.S. area coverage
A nation’s area coverage displays its imaginative and prescient and priorities for outer area. U.S. area coverage—a mixture of continuity from previous administrations and up to date directives—is printed in key paperwork, together with the U.S. National Space Policy, the U.S. Space Priorities Framework, Space Policy Directives, and different official publications.
Present area coverage emphasizes sustaining U.S. management in area, defending U.S. area belongings and dealing with industrial and worldwide companions to advertise secure, safe and accountable conduct in area. Its key elements include rising the American industrial area sector and returning astronauts to the moon.
Musk’s firm SpaceX has been instrumental in advancing these goals, supporting each NASA and the U.S. Space Force—the most recent department of the U.S. army—of their missions. (House Pressure was solely established when Trump was in workplace.) SpaceX’s improvements, such because the reusable Falcon 9 rockets, the Starlink satellite tv for pc web, and the highly effective Starship, have dramatically transformed entry to and use of outer area.
The 2016-2020 Trump administration advanced lots of the present U.S. area coverage targets, a few of which carefully align with Musk’s personal ambitions for area.
House synergy: Trump and Musk’s shared ambitions
Trump and Musk agree on three important goals in area.
First, each are dedicated to human growth past Earth. Trump’s Space Policy Directive 1, signed on December 11, 2017, set the U.S. on a course to return astronauts to the moon and set up a everlasting presence there, adopted by human missions to Mars and past.
This directive aligns with Musk’s imaginative and prescient of colonizing Mars, which is guiding the event of Starship: the most powerful and massive spacecraft ever built. Designed to be fully reusable, Starship will carry massive payloads and be able to deep area journey—together with lunar landings and journeys to the purple planet.
NASA’s Artemis program, which originated from Trump’s House Coverage Directive 1, plans to return people to the moon by 2026. To realize this objective, NASA partnered with SpaceX in 2021 to develop the Starship Human Touchdown System spacecraft, which is able to transport astronauts and cargo from lunar orbit to the moon’s floor and again. NASA’s Artemis program plans to return humans to the moon by 2026.
Second, each Trump and Musk help industrial involvement in area. Trump’s House Coverage Directive 1 particularly requires industrial and worldwide partnerships, marking a shift from the previous administration. President Joe Biden has continued this push to develop a strong industrial U.S. area sector.
This recognition of the pivotal function that non-public industries can play in area exploration aligns with Musk’s document as an entrepreneur and innovator. Below Musk, SpaceX has not solely provided essential services to NASA, but it surely has additionally pushed innovation to new heights. The corporate has considerably lowered the cost of space ventures and made area extra accessible to a broader audience of area explorers.
Third, each favor deregulation. Trump’s administration sought to cut back regulatory obstacles by directives like his Space Policy Directive 2, which aimed to streamline industrial area rules to encourage quicker progress and innovation within the personal area trade.
Even so, Musk has usually discovered present space regulations too restrictive. He has steadily challenged U.S. regulators—such because the Federal Aviation Administration which oversees launch and reentry necessities—and has referred to as for “comprehensive deregulation.”
Contrasting area visions: Musk versus Trump
By way of area priorities, Musk’s differs from Trump’s in three important elements.
First, Musk is concentrated on the long-term goal of constructing humanity a multi-planetary species, beginning with colonizing Mars and establishing a self-sustaining human presence there.
In distinction, Trump’s method to area emphasised asserting U.S. management by attaining near-Earth and near-term milestones, like returning People to the moon. Consequently, throughout his presidency, Trump prioritized the Artemis program and launched the Space Force to safeguard U.S. capabilities in area.
Second, whereas each worth the personal sector, Musk, by SpaceX, has pushed for cost reduction, innovation, and speedy iteration in area expertise. SpaceX’s Falcon rockets have reflown some 300 times, considerably chopping spaceflight prices. SpaceX additionally achieved main milestones in industrial spaceflight, together with changing into the first private company to send astronauts to the International Space Station.
In distinction, to fund the Artemis program, Trump referred to as for a significant increase in NASA’s funds. This transfer emphasised investing in government-led applications to attain area goals.
Third, Musk seems extra open to sharing patented information, even together with his rivals. He famously said that “patents are for the weak,” arguing that they block innovation and stifle progress. Whereas Musk continues to patent innovations, together with those related to SpaceX, he has additionally expressed help for fostering innovation by openness and collaboration.
In distinction, Trump’s area coverage centered on nationwide safety and strategic competitors. The creation of the House Pressure mirrored Trump’s view of area as a contested, army area the place the U.S. should defend its belongings and preserve a aggressive benefit.
Musk’s seemingly impression on future U.S. area coverage
If Musk had been to tackle a bigger, formal function in a second Trump administration, he would seemingly push for bold area missions and timelines. The preliminary focus would proceed to be on the Artemis program and lunar settlements, with elevated consideration ultimately shifting to human missions to Mars and past.
A Trump-Musk partnership would seemingly additional advance the commercialization of area. Musk may advocate for extra deregulation of area actions, probably difficult present security and safety requirements. Whereas Musk can be more likely to push for value discount, innovation, and efficiency, it might be attention-grabbing to see how his efforts would fare towards authorities paperwork.
Whether or not Musk would have an effect on U.S. area coverage concerning worldwide rivals like China stays unsure. Musk’s presence in a second Trump administration may, nonetheless, make clear whether or not industrial area actors will help decrease tensions between international locations in area.
Musk shouldn’t be a politician. He’s a visionary and problem-solver centered on the way forward for humanity. These qualities are additionally most definitely to form his impression on U.S. area coverage.
Svetla Ben-Itzhak is an assistant professor of area and worldwide relations at Johns Hopkins University.
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