Washington, DC – The administration of United States President Joe Biden has stated it’s taking a wait-and-see strategy to the fledgling authorities in Syria, with diplomats in current weeks holding preliminary conferences with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) head, and the nation’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in addition to the newly appointed International Minister Asaad al-Shibani.
However since rebels toppled longtime leader Bashar al-Assad in early December, the US has maintained it is going to hold its deployment of troops in northeast Syria, the place US personnel proceed to help the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a part of a decade-long anti-ISIL (ISIS) mission.
In reality, the Pentagon in December up to date the number of personnel it stated have been current within the nation, saying the quantity was really 2,000, not the 900 it had for years reported.
Joshua Landis, the director of the Middle of Center East Research on the College of Oklahoma, described the replace as a not-so-subtle message to numerous actors in Syria to take a cautious strategy in direction of the SDF and the sprawling, economically important, territory the group controls because the nation’s future takes shapes.
It additionally underscores how the US, at the least within the waning days of the Biden administration earlier than President-elect Donald Trump takes workplace on January 20, will search to claim its leverage in forming a brand new Syria, partly, by having boots on the bottom.
“It was a sign to Turkiye, I feel, and to the Arab forces that they shouldn’t be attacking the Kurdish area,” Landis stated, in reference to the territory the SDF controls, which has a big Syrian Kurdish inhabitants.
“It was meant to attract a line that that is one thing to be negotiated, and it’s not one thing to work out on the battlefield.”
On January 2, the United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights additionally reported that the US navy seemed to be bolstering its bases within the area, together with, in accordance with the monitor’s sources, constructing a brand new base in Ain al-Arab. Nevertheless, a Pentagon spokesperson on Friday denied that there have been plans to ascertain “some sort of base or presence” there.
So, what’s behind the plans to proceed the US presence in Syria following al-Assad’s toppling?
Said strategic priorities
The Biden administration’s public messaging has confused one defining precedence in sustaining a troop presence in Syria: The anti-ISIL (ISIS) operation, which was first launched in 2014 below US President Barack Obama.
Talking to reporters on December 19, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder additionally maintained that “there are not any plans to stop the Defeat ISIS mission”. Ryder stated the elevated troop numbers have been meant to reply to “rising mission necessities related to the Defeat ISIS mission”.
Mohammed Salih, a senior fellow on the Philadelphia-based International Coverage Analysis Institute, stated there are certainly a number of different unstated strategic pursuits behind the US troop deployment. Nevertheless, the continued risk of an ISIL resurgence shouldn’t be discounted.
Whereas ISIL was territorially defeated in 2017, the Pentagon in July stated there had been 153 assaults by the group’s fighters in Iraq and Syria within the first six months of the yr, a price double that of 2023.
With the SDF at present overseeing prisons housing hundreds of ISIL prisoners, a continued US presence can provide a deterrent to clashes with Turkish-backed teams that might degrade the safety scenario.
“[Fighting ISIL] remains to be a really a lot related goal,” Salih advised Al Jazeera. “It has been a peaceable, by and enormous, transitional course of to date, however the lack of a government additionally creates very important alternatives for chaos for a gaggle like ISIS to use. They’re fairly adept by way of adjusting with the circumstances that they take care of and following this gradual path of constructing a comeback, as they did in Iraq in 2010, 2011.”
For its half, Turkiye, which supported the HTS-led insurgent offensive in addition to the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), has floated a extra complete takeover of the anti-ISIL mission.
Turkiye considers The Individuals’s Protection Items (YPG), which makes up the majority of the SDF’s fighters, a “terrorist organisation”. The Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK), in the meantime, is taken into account a “terrorist” group by each Ankara and Washington.
Nevertheless, Turkiye’s opposition to the SDF has lengthy put it at odds with its fellow NATO ally, the US, over the latter’s help for the group.
‘Bargaining chips’
The SDF at present controls a big swath of northeast Syria, accounting for almost a 3rd of the nation’s general territory. The land it controls incorporates about 70 p.c of Syria’s oil and gasoline fields.
Together with reduction from the crushing US and foreign sanctions imposed on areas managed by al-Assad throughout his rule, management of these oil fields will probably be important for Syria’s future financial growth. Al-Sharaa and al-Shibani have made that growth the principle emphasis of their early contacts with media and international envoys.
“Syria wants main international funding in its oil business with the intention to put it again on-line, to renovate and refurbish it,” Landis, the Middle of Center East Research director, advised Al Jazeera. “Solely the Syrian authorities can do this as a result of the US doesn’t have the authority to signal lengthy term-leases with international governments. Neither do the Kurds, as a result of they’re not a recognised authorities. These wells belong to the Syrian authorities.”
The US troop presence in Syria has, partly, aimed to make sure these fossil gas fields stayed out of the arms of each ISIL, which briefly managed them, and the al-Assad authorities.
In 2019, then-US President Trump directly addressed that intention, saying throughout a White Home information convention subsequent to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US had “left troops behind just for the oil”. A Pentagon official later stated that “securing of the oil fields is a subordinate job” to defeating ISIL in Syria.
Whatever the US motivation for securing the fields lately, their launch will probably be a key leverage level in negotiations going ahead, Landis stated.
“Sanctions and oil are large bargaining chips,” Landis stated.
These negotiations will embrace whether or not the SDF may have a task within the new authorities. In an early signal of cooperation, al-Sharaa met with SDF delegates final week.
Potential stress from Israel
Washington might additionally search to affect the tact the brand new Syrian authorities takes with US foes like Iran and regional allies, most notably Israel, which has seized Syrian territory past the occupied Golan Heights because the starting of December.
“All of this presents a possibility to reshape or restructure the regional order in a means that will be extra in keeping with US priorities,” Salih, from the International Coverage Analysis Institute, stated.
Whereas the opposition takeover largely gutted Iranian affect in Syria and minimize off Tehran’s provide strains to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it has additionally opened the door for elevated affect from Turkiye, which has taken a tough line towards Israel amid the conflict in Gaza.
In flip, Israel might heap elevated stress on its “ironclad” ally Washington to extract assurances from Turkiye, in accordance with Landis.
“Israel, clearly America’s closest ally within the area, may be very anxious that it’s simply buying and selling an Iranian proxy for a Turkish proxy,” Landis stated. “So, Israel’s pursuits are going to be to maintain Syria as weak, divided and poor as potential and should certainly be making an attempt to construct some stress for the US to stay in Syria with its troops.”
However that stress might run counter to US pursuits, he famous, significantly with regional Arab allies more and more embracing al-Sharaa. Whereas US presence could also be tolerated within the rapid future, when the newly constituted Syrian authorities military is ill-equipped to reply to ISIL, there will probably be an expiration date.
“They’ll solely drag that on for thus lengthy earlier than you alienate everyone,” Landis stated. “There are simply many the explanation why America doesn’t need to actually damage the trouble to unite Syria.”
The long run and Trump
Then there may be the query of the pending Trump administration and what the second time period of a president identified for his volatility in international coverage will spell for Syria.
Trump has sparingly weighed in on the scenario. In his characteristically nebulous style, he wrote on his TruthSocial platform in early December that Syria “shouldn’t be our combat”.
The assertion seems to be in keeping with Trump’s “America First” pledges to finish US navy involvement overseas, though his previous efforts to withdraw US troops from Syria stalled amid sturdy opposition from inside his personal administration.
Given his appointees this time round, Trump seems to be on an analogous collision course, in accordance with Salih.
“Figures such because the Nationwide Safety adviser choose, Congressman Mike Waltz, and the secretary of a state nominee, Marco Rubio, stood strongly and really vocally towards Turkish navy operations towards the SDF… and that the US wants to keep up a navy deployment inside Syria,” he stated.
“All of that very a lot might run towards the non-public needs and wishes of Trump.”
Additional muddying the waters, Trump in December appeared to reward Ankara for its help of the insurgent ousting of al-Assad, whereas describing the toppling as an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkiye.
Some observers have speculated that Trump could also be extra open to turning over anti-ISIL operations than his predecessor, though no clear place has emerged.
“I wouldn’t anticipate Syria coverage to have been settled as of but,” Salih stated.
“I feel there could be fairly some wrestle contained in the incoming administration with regards to Syria coverage.”