America should rigorously take into account its actions earlier than entering into the Syrian quagmire, a doubtlessly unwinnable battle involving a number of actors and deeply conflicting pursuits.
Syria’s civil conflict, which started in 2011, has developed into one of many most complex and devastating conflicts in modern history.
Removed from being a simple wrestle between regime forces and rebels, it has change into a tangled net of overlapping allegiances, ethnic and spiritual tensions, and geopolitical rivalries.
The conflict has turned Syria right into a battlefield for native, regional, and worldwide actors, every pursuing conflicting pursuits.
On the coronary heart of Syria’s complexity lies the sheer variety of actors concerned. On one facet are regime loyalists, led by President Bashar al-Assad (now deposed) and supported by exterior powers like Russia and Iran.
On the opposite facet, a kaleidoscope of insurgent teams battles each the regime and, in some instances, one another. These embrace Turkish-backed teams just like the Free Syrian Military (FSA), now rebranded because the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate that now seeks to current itself as a extra reasonable opposition power.
Including to this combine is the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the US, which primarily focuses on countering ISIS.
Russia, a longstanding ally of President Bashar al-Assad, has considerably lowered its navy presence in Syria following Assad’s ousting.
Russian troops have withdrawn, and navy gear, together with assault helicopters and air protection items, has been dismantled. Assad has fled to Russia, the place he was granted asylum by President Vladimir Putin.
Iran, one other key supporter of Assad, has confronted setbacks as a result of his removing. The autumn of Assad’s regime has weakened Iran’s strategic place within the area, notably its land hall by Syria, which was essential for supplying Hezbollah.
In response, Iran has withdrawn some navy and diplomatic personnel from Syria.
Israel has performed airstrikes concentrating on Hezbollah weapons depots in Syria, aiming to forestall the switch of superior weaponry to the group.
Israeli officers have expressed cautious optimism concerning the potential for a extra secure and fewer hostile neighbor following Assad’s removing.
Nonetheless, issues stay concerning the nature of the brand new management and the potential of continued instability.
America maintains a restricted troop presence in japanese Syria, to fight ISIS and stop the group’s resurgence.
Its presence can be a hedge in opposition to rising Iranian affect and a safeguard for Kurdish allies who performed a key function in defeating ISIS.
Regardless of these targets, the U.S. has largely prevented deeper involvement, leaving a lot of its native allies feeling deserted.
Turkey, by far probably the most influential overseas actor, has lengthy supported opposition teams in opposition to Bashar al-Assad, seeing the Syrian battle as a chance to develop its affect within the area whereas countering threats to its nationwide safety.
Within the wake of Assad’s downfall, Turkey reopened its embassy in Syria and has actively engaged in diplomatic discussions concerning Syria’s future governance.
These efforts are aimed toward making certain that any new energy construction in Syria aligns with Ankara’s strategic pursuits, notably concerning the Kurdish subject and the continuing battle in opposition to Kurdish separatists.
A major driver of Turkey’s involvement in Syria is its opposition to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey views as an extension of the Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion (PKK)—a delegated terrorist group by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU. The PKK has waged an insurgency in opposition to the Turkish state for many years, searching for autonomy for Kurds in southeastern Turkey.
Ankara fears that the SDF’s management of enormous swathes of northern Syria might present a secure haven for PKK militants and embolden Kurdish separatist actions inside Turkey.
To counter this menace, Turkey has performed a number of cross-border navy operations in northern Syria since 2016, concentrating on Kurdish forces below the pretext of building a “secure zone” alongside its southern border.
Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) fighters have performed a key function in these campaigns, capturing important territories as soon as held by the SDF, together with Afrin and elements of the Euphrates River’s east.
Most not too long ago, the Turkish navy, with SNA help, seized the town of Manbij from the SDF, additional weakening Kurdish management within the area.
Turkey’s aggressive stance in opposition to Kurdish forces has drawn worldwide criticism, notably from the US, which had beforehand backed the SDF as a vital ally within the battle in opposition to ISIS.
Regardless of these tensions, Turkey has remained steadfast in its place, prioritizing its home safety issues over worldwide objections.
Ankara’s broader intention is to forestall the emergence of any autonomous Kurdish entity in Syria that would encourage related aspirations amongst its Kurdish inhabitants.
Past its navy campaigns, Turkey has additionally sought to resettle Syrian refugees at the moment dwelling in Turkey into the northern territories it controls in Syria.
Ankara claims this initiative will ease the burden of internet hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees whereas making a demographic buffer in opposition to Kurdish affect within the area. Nonetheless, critics argue that this coverage quantities to demographic engineering and will exacerbate ethnic tensions within the already war-torn area.
Every of the events to the Syrian conflict has its personal agenda and priorities. For instance, whereas the SNA operates below Turkish management and targets Kurdish forces, HTS goals to consolidate its place in Syria by distancing itself from its extremist previous. In the meantime, the SDF governs the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), a Kurdish-led area that seeks larger autonomy however struggles to realize worldwide recognition.
Syria’s strategic location on the crossroads of Asia, the Center East, and Europe makes it a key battleground for regional and worldwide powers. For Turkey, the first concern is stopping the institution of a Kurdish state on its southern border.