POSSIBLE RENEGOTIATION OF DEAL UNDER TRUMP
If Trump wins the election, specialists stated he’ll probably scrap a deal reached underneath President Joe Biden’s administration final month, and power Seoul to pay extra to host about 28,500 American troops primarily based in South Korea.
Each nations in October agreed that Seoul can pay US$1.1 billion in 2026, when a brand new five-year defence cost-sharing deal kicks in. That is a rise of 8.3 per cent in contrast with 2025.
However Trump has stated he needs to hunt as a lot as US$10 billion from South Korea.
Asan Institute of Coverage Research’ Cha stated Trump may ask for re-negotiation of the deal, and South Korea could have to vow a considerable improve in what it pays the US even when the brand new deal will not be as excessive as Trump’s suggestion.
“South Korea may request stable assurances concerning the North Korean nuclear menace, commensurate with the elevated monetary contributions it’s making,” Cha famous.
“On this case, on condition that the Trump administration tends to prioritise financial advantages, the negotiations may truly develop into simpler in some respects.”
Regardless of the result of any negotiations, nevertheless, analysts stated it’s unlikely Trump will pull American troops from South Korea if he’s elected – one thing he had beforehand threatened to do.
Additionally they expressed optimism that cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan will proceed.
“Even through the first time period of the Trump authorities, the US tried loads to revive the connection between Japan and Korea and make trilateral cooperation,” stated Sejong Institute’s Kim.
“What I fear about is, if Trump requests plenty of budget-sharing after which places tariffs on Japan and South Korea, I am undecided how the South Korean and Japanese authorities can be keen to cooperate on the trilateral format.”