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The rerouting of worldwide commerce from China to ports elsewhere in Asia is main shipowners to maneuver on from the period of ordering ever-larger vessels and change to smaller crafts as an alternative.
Simply six container ships able to carrying the equal of greater than 17,000 20-foot containers, recognized in trade parlance as TEUs, are because of be delivered in 2025, towards 17 delivered in 2020, in keeping with shipbroker Braemar.
On the identical time, 83 mid-sized vessels measuring between 12,000 TEUs and 16,999 TEUs are set to be accomplished in 2025, virtually 5 occasions the quantity 5 years earlier.
“The 16,000-TEU ship will develop into the favored workhorse for liner corporations,” mentioned Jonathan Roach, container market analyst at Braemar, who added that “tepid” world commerce and a saturation of “large ships” had additionally decreased the urge for food for these vessels.
The specter of environmental rules and trade disruptions — together with final 12 months’s assaults on ships within the Crimson Sea — have additionally hit demand for the bulkiest carriers, mentioned trade insiders.
That disruption is expected to continue with Donald Trump’s return to the White Home this month. The incoming president has threatened to turbocharge tariffs on imports from China.
“We undoubtedly see elevated curiosity away from sourcing solely your merchandise from China,” mentioned Peter Sand, chief analyst at delivery market tracker Xeneta, who added that offer chains had been spreading to smaller manufacturing hubs elsewhere in Asia.
Sand added: “You possibly can solely make financial sense out of ships [of the largest] measurement when you’ve got obtained the cargo to fill that up. For those who don’t, you might be dropping cash.”
A senior govt at one among Asia’s largest container delivery strains echoed Sand’s remarks. With manufacturing shifting to India and Vietnam, “it in all probability makes much less sense to count on the biggest vessels [to be] crammed up in two or three ports”, he mentioned.
The shift follows many years of shipowners ordering ever-larger vessels as world commerce boomed — a development that came to widespread attention when the 220,000-tonne, 20,000-TEU Ever Given ship ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal for six days in 2021.
Whereas mid-sized ships had overtaken the biggest in reputation, demand for vessels larger than 18,000 TEU had picked up once more as income within the container shipping trade soared in 2024.
Seventy-six ships of this measurement had been on order at the beginning of December, in contrast with 45 on the identical level in 2023, in keeping with Braemar. Mediterranean Transport Firm, the trade chief, alone ordered 10 ships measuring 21,000 TEU in September, in keeping with stories within the delivery commerce press.
Shipowners’ earnings have surged after Yemen’s Houthi militant group launched a flurry of assaults on vessels close to the Suez Canal, main liners to divert ships and driving up the price of delivery as the availability of obtainable vessels dwindled.
However consultants mentioned the assaults, launched in an indication of help for Palestinians through the battle in Gaza, had solely emphasised the rising significance of flexibility within the trade.
Extremely-large ships are predominantly used to ferry giant Asia-Europe trades by way of the Suez Canal however would battle to transit different crucial passages such because the Panama Canal.
“The shutting of the Suez Canal has had a critical influence on container delivery,” mentioned William MacLachlan, a companion at legislation agency HFW who advises purchasers on shipbuilding. “Smaller ships can reply to macroeconomic occasions extra readily.”
He additionally pointed to appreciable uncertainty over which gasoline future ships must be constructed to run on, with restricted provides of inexperienced options.
Shipowners are additionally uncertain about what necessities the Worldwide Maritime Group, the trade regulator, will set to realize its goal of web zero emissions by about 2050.
“I think smaller shipowners are considering: can I justify that funding [in an ultra-large ship]?” mentioned MacLachlan. “The smaller value of the smaller ships means persons are in all probability much less involved.”