Election Day is lower than three weeks away and the predictions are wanting nearer than both aspect wish to admit.
The most recent from statistician and pollster Nate Silver sees this race as lifeless even.
On his official website, Silver posted that Vice President Kamala Harris, “has a 50 p.c likelihood of successful the electoral school. We’re in pure tossup terratory [sic], and Harris’ slight lead final week has disappeared.”
The actual information right here is that Silver launched his prediction on Wednesday afternoon earlier than the Harris interview with Fox Information anchor Brett Baier had aired on the community.
Whereas Newsweek reports that is the primary time Silver’s mannequin has given Harris and former President Donald Trump an equal likelihood of successful, her Fox Information interview could present a now even race swing extra in the direction of Trump within the weeks earlier than Nov. 5.
Simply think about how abysmal her efficiency was.
Each Harris and her operating mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, determined to make extra media appearances within the face of mounting criticism that the marketing campaign was holding her out of the general public eye.
Though Harris appeared underneath pleasant circumstances on exhibits like “The View” and “The Late Present with Stephen Colbert,” Wednesday’s interview with Baier was arguably the primary time she put herself in an adversarial setting.
Baier didn’t come off as hostile or aggressive in the direction of Harris, however he did push her on the problems.
Regardless of getting probably the most predictable questions on her marketing campaign — notably ones about illegal immigration — Harris nonetheless stumbled and couldn’t produce something coherent that viewers may discern as a coverage place.
The Harris marketing campaign hoped extra public publicity would enable her to take a extra assured lead over Trump, however for anybody who places weight in Silver’s mannequin, he’s obtained dangerous information.
Moreover, presidential betting odds swung dramatically in Trump’s favor as RealClearPolling’s betting odds data put him at a 58.1 p.c likelihood of successful to Harris’ 40.9.
Historian Alan Lichtman, recognized for his “13 Keys to the White Home” predicts a Harris victory.
Lichtman is thought for his accuracy in predicting each election appropriately since 1984, except for 2000.
Extra unorthodox strategies exist for figuring out who the following president might be. Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, does a presidential “cookie tally” that started in 2012 the place clients should buy cookies with both candidate’s identify on them because the bakery retains depend of who sells extra.
Final week, the Philadelphia Enquirer reported 19,000 cookies had been offered with greater than 18,000 being for Trump.
With Silver placing this election as a toss-up, the cash going for Trump, Lichtman giving the nod to Harris and the cookies placing Trump in landslide territory, the pondering particular person making an attempt to foretell this election has some elements to weigh.
Whereas the Harris marketing campaign may not be thrilled with Silver’s mannequin and the fallout from Wednesday’s interview, no candidate ought to be sitting comfortably.
This text appeared initially on The Western Journal.