Harris and Trump make final appeals as race goes down to wire

In the present day’s agenda: Wall Road’s ‘neocloud’ AI wager; China pressures wealthy to cough up taxes; BoE set for fee minimize; Hamas after Sinwar; and Buffett slashes Apple stake

Good morning. It’s the eve of the world’s most vital election. Each candidates spent their weekends campaigning in swing states, with Donald Trump making unfounded claims of electoral fraud at a Pennsylvania rally whereas Kamala Harris fastidiously pushed an upbeat closing message in Michigan after showing on the comedy present Saturday Evening Stay. Right here’s the newest from the ultimate days of the US presidential race.

The place the polls stand: Harris and Trump stay in a useless warmth, with the Financial Times poll tracker exhibiting they’re nonetheless locked in a statistical tie within the seven battleground states. However one ballot gave the vice-president an unexpected three-point lead in Iowa, a state her Republican rival gained by 9 factors 4 years in the past. The survey breakdown suggests a late surge in help from girls voters, a demographic Harris has focused on consistently by campaigning on reproductive rights.

What to anticipate in markets: Bankers, merchants and traders are getting ready for an extended interval of high volumes and increased volatility. The early focus because the polls shut can be on bond and foreign money markets, which commerce via the night time. Whereas inventory futures may even be shifting, they usually grow to be extra dependable indicators within the morning, earlier than the New York market opens. The Federal Reserve remains to be anticipated to lower rates by a quarter-point when it declares its rate of interest determination on Thursday, with the election outcomes probably not but identified.

In tomorrow’s e-newsletter, I’ll convey you extra updates on what to look out for as polls shut within the night within the US. For now, listed below are some advisable reads. You can too discover all of our coverage here.

• What if Trump wins? The previous president might really feel emboldened to implement a radical agenda, with fewer checks and balances than throughout his first time period.

• What if Harris wins? A legal and information war waged by Trump’s staff to cease her victory from being licensed might drag out the method for days and even weeks.

• Ignore the noise: Buyers ought to tune out, writes Richard Bernstein. The fact is presidents have traditionally had comparatively little impact on returns.

• America’s power future: Few industries stand to realize — or lose — extra with the election than renewable sources of power.

Ensure you’re signed up for our US election e-newsletter to get updates tomorrow. Right here’s what else I’m retaining tabs on right this moment:

• Financial knowledge: The EU has its manufacturing buying managers’ index.

• Oil: The annual Adipec business occasion begins in Abu Dhabi with Opec’s secretary-general attending. The cartel has delayed a plan to start elevating oil manufacturing till the tip of the yr.

• China: Prime lawmakers have begun a week-long assembly that’s anticipated to approve a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.

• Moldova: President Maia Sandu is on course to win a second time period, in line with preliminary outcomes.

Specialists led by Monetary Instances editor Roula Khalaf will focus on their predictions for the world in 2025 in a digital occasion on December 11. Register today.

5 extra prime tales

1. Unique: Wall Road’s largest monetary establishments have loaned greater than $11bn to a distinct segment group of tech firms based mostly on their possession of the world’s hottest commodity: Nvidia’s synthetic intelligence chips. Blackstone, Pimco, Carlyle and BlackRock are amongst people who have created a profitable new debt market over the previous yr by lending to so-called neocloud companies.

2. Chinese language authorities are demanding firms and the rich double-check their taxes for unpaid liabilities as native governments hunt for income to refill coffers depleted by a property droop. The transfer threatens to additional dent investor confidence forward of this week’s anticipated fiscal stimulus. Here’s more on the tax “self-inspections”.

3. The Financial institution of England is anticipated to vote for its second rate of interest minimize this yr regardless of predictions that the UK Price range will increase near-term demand and result in increased inflation. However economists mentioned the near-term stimulus was unlikely to be substantial sufficient to derail a widely anticipated rate cut on Thursday.

4. A bitter authorized dispute prompted by an inner ethics code has damaged out amongst Germany’s prime financial advisers. Because the Council of Financial Specialists places the ultimate touches on its report due this month, one of many 5 lecturers on the panel has taken the opposite colleagues to court docket. Olaf Storbeck has more details from Frankfurt.

5. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was evacuated from Spain’s flood catastrophe zone yesterday as livid locals pelted mud at him and the Spanish king over a string of failures that left individuals helplessly uncovered to a lethal deluge. Some residents of Paiporta, a city that was dwelling to just about one-third of the 214 identified victims, shouted “murderers” as the leaders visited the area.

Information in-depth

Israel’s army has already wrested a lot of Gaza from Hamas, killing 1000’s of its fighters and assassinating its chief, Yahya Sinwar. However the political motion has at all times been far more than its army wing, and what stays will show far more durable to destroy. “In all places there may be the odor of Hamas,” mentioned one Gazan. “They’re not going anywhere.”

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Financial mirage: The US economic system seems to be unusually robust, however its latest development has been lopsided, brittle and heavily reliant on authorities spending and borrowing, writes Ruchir Sharma.

• Argentine politics: Javier Milei’s deregulation minister speaks to the FT about his mission to create the world’s freest economy by taking a chainsaw to its statute guide.

• Mattel after Barbie: With the movie’s success, CEO Ynon Kreiz now plans to show the corporate’s different toy manufacturers right into a “playground” for filmmakers.

• Gen Z’s woes: Does the youthful technology really have it tougher than earlier ones? Amy Borrett finds out.

Chart of the day

Warren Buffett has continued to slash his stake in Apple as a part of a promoting spree that has seen his Berkshire Hathaway dump $166bn value of shares over the previous two years. Over the weekend, the conglomerate disclosed it had decreased its place within the iPhone maker to $69.9bn within the third quarter, indicating it had shed an extra 100mn shares.

Take a break from the information

An e mail introduction ought to produce a gathering that’s helpful, mutually helpful and enjoyable, writes columnist Pilita Clark. However far too many break these basic rules that an introducer ought to virtually at all times comply with.