Trump, however, would current rather more danger vis-a-vis his China coverage. His tariff threats would wreak havoc on international commerce and provide chains if carried out. He can also go even additional, contemplating considered one of his former Cupboard members known as for a whole decoupling from China. The buying and selling system would ultimately recuperate, however not earlier than struggling extended turbulence.
Regardless of this, a second Trump administration could counterintuitively make inroads with Southeast Asian governments.
His transactional strategy could discover extra help in Southeast Asia, the place governments favor to speak about deliverables reminiscent of funding offers as a substitute of human rights and values. He can also discover frequent floor and private rapport with regional leaders reminiscent of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, given his affinity with strongmen who can “get issues finished” no matter standard restraints. Singapore leaders may need to vary tack, planning extra one-on-one discussions between heads of presidency to safe commitments from the US.
TAKEAWAYS FOR SINGAPORE
Neither situation is risk-free. Removed from being a cliche, Singapore ought to put together for a bumpy highway forward, no matter who wins.
Harris could present the multilateral management that Singapore needs on points reminiscent of local weather change however fail to resuscitate US coverage on Southeast Asia. Trump would possibly make inroads with Southeast Asian leaders however trigger chaos along with his commerce and China insurance policies. Whereas constructing on the identical strategic understandings, the precise form of those insurance policies will depend upon the advisers the victorious candidate make use of.