Even starker, the alliance may have turned from asset into legal responsibility. Iran-backed Iraqi politicians and militia officers rejected Iranian Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi’s request that they ship reinforcements to Syria in assist of Assad.
Iran and its allies will not be capable to keep a army presence in Syria or use the nation as a assist hub for Hezbollah. It is going to be pressured to revisit its technique and broader regional insurance policies.
FEARS OF A POPULAR UPRISING
The truth that a popular armed insurrection toppled Assad has set off alarm bells in Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has lengthy considered common revolts in Ukraine and different East European nations as US-engineered efforts to destabilise Russia’s neighbourhood, whereas Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets in mass anti-government protests through the years.
“The state of affairs within the Islamic Republic will not be akin to Syria in any respect. However, one ought to be aware of public opinion,” stated conservative politician and journalist Naser Imani to an Iranian media outlet.
Critics eliminated with out clarification social media postings wherein they asserted that Iran had wasted sources on supporting an unpopular chief in Syria, an implicit criticism of Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, a good friend and staunch supporter of Assad.
Even so, some worry that the collapse of the Assad regime may strengthen the hand of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its hardline supporters. IRGC members asserted that “abandoning” Assad constituted a “betrayal” that might have critical penalties for Iran.
Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a youthful IRGC member as saying: “We zealous youth won’t neglect the cowardice of the decision-makers.”
For Russia and Iran, the silver lining is that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seems extra taken with specializing in Syria’s rehabilitation and reconstruction quite than retaliation. In doing so, the rebels might assist Assad’s backers save face whereas taking out one in all their foremost regional property.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological College’s S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research, and the creator of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.