A REFLECTION OF GLOBAL POLITICAL POLARISATION
ASEAN has taken steps to insulate itself from variations between its dialogue companions. Till 2022, companions may suggest issue-specific East Asia Summit statements. Nonetheless, negotiation of those statements (one in every of which was proposed by Russia in 2022 on the seemingly innocuous matter of volunteerism) grew to become too contentious.
Whereas the East Asia Summit continues to be prone to problem at the very least one collectively negotiated assertion in 2024, it’s a reflection of world political polarisation that ASEAN’s dialogue companions are now not capable of suggest their very own duelling statements to advance their most popular language on worldwide points.
As a result of Laos is a weaker ASEAN member, many will already be trying to Malaysia’s chairmanship in 2025.
Prime Minister Anwar has courted worldwide controversy together with his assist for Hamas and tilting in the direction of China’s positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea. However the ASEAN chair’s affect is at all times restricted, so Anwar’s personal views won’t change the trajectory of the organisation.
Anwar has already invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the 2025 ASEAN summits, which may present a possibility for Moscow to safe a diplomatic win similar to reaching complete strategic associate standing, which Australia, China, the US and Japan already take pleasure in (South Korea can have complete strategic associate standing confirmed later this 12 months).
So, the ASEAN present will come to Laos after which roll on once more. Concrete progress on urgent points will likely be sorely missing. However as the worldwide setting turns into extra contested and the scope for worldwide consensus narrows, ASEAN’s convening energy is maybe extra necessary than ever.
Susannah Patton is Director of the Southeast Asia Program on the Lowy Institute. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s weblog, The Interpreter.