China’s trade surplus hits record high ahead of Trump return

Good morning. In right now’s e-newsletter:

• China’s commerce surplus hits report excessive

• Air India tries to win again disgruntled prospects

• Hong Kong’s iconic ‘tea eating places’

China’s commerce surplus with the remainder of the world reached a report of virtually $1tn in 2024, official knowledge confirmed yesterday, only a week earlier than Donald Trump returns to the White Home with a vow to impose punitive tariffs on the US’s largest financial rival.

The $992bn Chinese language commerce surplus, greater than a 3rd of which was with the US, is predicted to gasoline additional tensions with Washington and different buying and selling companions, who’ve pushed again towards a surge of Chinese language exports.

Economists stated the figures benefited from “front-loading” of exports, as producers tried to ship items forward of an anticipated commerce conflict with the incoming Trump administration.

Chinese language producers, in the meantime, have stepped up exports to offset sluggish home demand, with households nonetheless recovering from a three-year property crash on the earth’s second-largest financial system. Read how Trump’s threatened tariffs could affect these trends.

• Associated: Mexico’s authorities yesterday launched a plan to shrink its yawning trade deficit with China and entice funding, in an olive department to the incoming Trump administration.

• AI race: The US is imposing expansive export controls on chips used for synthetic intelligence in an effort to make it more durable for China and different adversaries to get entry to superior expertise with army functions.

Right here’s what else we’re preserving tabs on right now:

• Financial knowledge: India publishes month-to-month wholesale worth index inflation fee knowledge.

• India: Area expertise firm Pixxel is about to launch the nation’s first private satellite network aboard a SpaceX rocket from California. (Reuters)

Be part of the FT in Davos as we offer dwell, on-the-ground evaluation on the World Financial Discussion board’s annual assembly subsequent week. Register here for updates.

5 extra high tales

1. China is constructing a brand new class of cellular piers, which might bolster its potential to land an invading power in Taiwan. The six barge-like vessels might assist the Individuals’s Liberation Military transport heavy army gear corresponding to tanks and artillery throughout mudflats or seawalls on to agency floor. Satellite images show the new mobile piers under construction.

2. EU shipyards are repairing Russian ice-class tankers and providing them dry dock services, enabling Moscow to proceed transferring gasoline via the Arctic regardless of western sanctions on its vitality sector. With out the upkeep work, Russia’s Yamal LNG plant would wrestle to entry essential markets via the winter when northern hemisphere gasoline costs are at their highest. Here’s why these activities are not sanctioned.

3. US-led mediators have despatched the ultimate draft of a ceasefire proposal to Israel and Hamas after a “breakthrough” in talks over a deal to finish the conflict in Gaza and safe the discharge of hostages. Individuals acquainted with the matter stated it left the opponents the closest they’ve been in months to ending the battle. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal,” stated one diplomat.

4. Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor are set to launch a joint bid to accumulate US Metal simply weeks after US President Joe Biden blocked the $15bn takeover of the Pennsylvania-based group by Japan’s Nippon Metal, stated folks briefed on the matter. Cleveland-Cliffs plans to supply lower than $40 a share to purchase the corporate, significantly below the $55 a share that Nippon Steel had agreed to pay final yr.

5. Los Angeles was braced for close to “hurricane power” winds yesterday, which climate forecasters stated might fan the devastating wildfires which have swept throughout the US’s second-largest metropolis. As firefighters struggled to include the lethal blazes that continued to rage, the Nationwide Climate service warned the winds could create “explosive fire growth”.

Information in-depth

The chief govt of Air India has hailed the provider’s progress in an formidable turnaround below its Tata Group proprietor, whereas acknowledging the problem of restoring the fame of the previous state-owned nationwide provider that Indians like to complain about. “There’s a blessing and a curse to being the nationwide provider,” stated Campbell Wilson, the Singapore Airways veteran employed after Tata purchased Air India in a $2.4bn deal in 2022. Here’s how Air India is trying to win back customers.

Premium FT subscribers can join here for India Enterprise Briefing, the Indian skilled’s must-read e-newsletter on enterprise and coverage. Authentic evaluation from my colleague Veena Venugopal will probably be delivered to your inbox each Tuesday and Friday.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• An out-of-the-box concept for China and Trump: Washington and Beijing ought to conduct a joint intervention on the renminbi, writes Mark Sobel, a former US Treasury official.

• Zuckerberg’s cravenness: The person answerable for social media platforms utilized by billions ought to present some moral courage, writes Jemima Kelly.

• The place incumbents gained: The global rebellion against those in power doesn’t prolong to growing democracies corresponding to India and Indonesia, writes Ruchir Sharma.

Chart of the day

Chinese language company earnings are set to point out a third consecutive year of declines in 2024, with the pattern anticipated to proceed into this yr as deflationary pressures weigh on the world’s second-largest financial system.

Take a break from the information . . . 

Few issues symbolise Hong Kong’s fusion of flavours greater than its iconic cha chaan tengs — or “tea eating places” — that serve a mixture of western imports alongside Chinese language dishes and native innovations. Hongkonger Jason Chau shared a few of his favourites as a part of FT Globetrotter’s guide to Hong Kong.