Taichung, Taiwan – When Li Wei took over the operating of his father’s glass-making enterprise in northern China’s Cangzhou in 2020, he instantly set about optimising the agency’s operations.
Li moved Hebei Yiyue Glass Merchandise’ sole manufacturing unit from its metropolis location to a web site exterior Cangzhou, offering higher entry to essential highway networks and more room to broaden the ability.
On the identical time, Li modified the first focus of the corporate from promoting glass parts to prospects in China to exporting completed glass merchandise to prospects overseas.
In the present day, he oversees a profitable export enterprise that sells cups, pots and jars all through the world and employs twice as many employees as when he took over.
A lot of Li’s success is owed to the demand for his merchandise in the USA, which in recent times has been the vacation spot for as a lot as 80 p.c of his firm’s exports.
However now, Li and his colleagues are involved that their success may all come crashing down if former US President Donald Trump is re-elected to the White Home on November 5.
Trump, who’s operating neck and neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in a race that’s too near name, has floated plans for tariffs of 60 p.c or extra on all items heading to the US from China.
Economists have dubbed Trump’s plans “Tariff Conflict 2.0”, after the Republican imposed tariffs as excessive as 25 p.c on a spread of Chinese language items throughout his first time period in workplace, prompting Beijing to announce its personal tariffs in flip.
“Such a big enhance in tariffs by the USA will certainly have an excellent affect on me and my enterprise,” Li informed Al Jazeera.
“It should lead to our merchandise not being aggressive, and on the very least our gross sales within the US will drop sharply.”
Since Trump’s announcement, Li has been working 12-hour days to establish different export locations that would offset a downturn in his US enterprise.
To date, he has not been capable of finding an alternative choice to the world’s largest market.
“I’m very busy looking for options, however some days the state of affairs feels horrible,” he stated. “Usually, I don’t like to consider it.”
Gary Ng, a senior economist with funding financial institution Natixis in Hong Kong, stated that Chinese language exporters have severe trigger for concern if Trump re-enters the White Home and follows via on his plans.
“With tariff charges at 60 p.c, many Chinese language producers would not be aggressive or in a position to flip a revenue from their exports to the US market,” Ng informed Al Jazeera.
“For the Chinese language corporations which can be significantly uncovered to the US market, this could be problematic, and so they may face loads of strain.”
Amongst exporters already feeling the strain is Sotech, a producer of superior digital parts based mostly in Shanghai, in keeping with firm gross sales supervisor Dong Sion.
“I used to be shocked,” Dong informed Al Jazeera, referring to the second she first heard about Trump’s proposals.
Greater than 90 p.c of Sotech’s merchandise, which embody sensible glasses, are exported abroad, with about 30 p.c of these exports going to the US.
“If 60 p.c tariffs are imposed then it may disrupt our US enterprise and even finish it fully,” Dong stated.
“And we might be compelled to chop employees.”
For some Chinese language corporations, extra tariffs may show to be the deadly blow at a time of already difficult situations on the earth’s second-largest economic system, stated Allan Von Mehren, chief analyst and China economist at Danske Financial institution.
“It could have massive repercussions in China,” Von Mehren informed Al Jazeera.
The US is by far the highest vacation spot for China’s exports, taking in additional than $400bn value of its items every year.
With a lot commerce in danger, UBS has estimated that imposing a 60 p.c tariff, on prime of current tariffs, would decrease China’s gross home product (GDP) development by 2.5 share factors over the following 12 months.
Such a success would come at an inopportune time for the world’s second-largest economic system.
An ailing property sector, low client confidence and family spending nicely beneath the worldwide common are all weighing on development, whereas the nation’s conventional investment-fuelled, export-led improvement mannequin is struggling to select up the slack.
Going through such headwinds, Chinese language authorities are broadly seen as unlikely to hit the federal government’s development goal of about 5 p.c – a problem that can solely get tougher if Chinese language exporters lose US market entry resulting from new tariffs.
![Hebei Yiyue Glass Products’ factory in Cangzhou, Hebei, China [Courtesy of Hebei Yiyue Glass Products]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IMG-20241030-WA0002-1730357055.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513)
Lily Wang, a current college graduate who works at Li Wei’s glass-making firm exterior Cangzhou, stated she is afraid that new tariffs mixed with the poor state of the Chinese language economic system will result in a surge in unemployed employees and worsening working situations for many who are employed.
“Chinese language employers are slicing loads of issues already, and if commerce with the US declines, I’m nervous that it’s going to get even worse,” Wang informed Al Jazeera.
The precise injury to the Chinese language economic system from the tariffs is prone to depend upon corporations’ means to adapt, Ng stated.
“Some corporations may attempt to diversify their export construction or transfer their manufacturing to different nations after which export to the US from there,” he stated.
Some Chinese language corporations have already taken such measures.
At Hebei Cangzhou New Century Worldwide Commerce, a building supplies firm in Hebei province that sends about 40 p.c of its exports to the US, the administration is contemplating teaming up with producers in Indonesia.
“A 60 p.c tariff price can’t be coated by our export income,” Vice President Lucy Zhang informed Al Jazeera.
“So, we’re trying into methods to not directly export to the US as a substitute.”
On the identical time, the Chinese language authorities has been engaged on nurturing new markets for Chinese language exporters.
In September, Beijing hosted 50 African nations for the Discussion board on China-Africa Cooperation, which aimed to spice up African imports of Chinese language merchandise, significantly photo voltaic panels and electrical autos.
China is Africa’s greatest buying and selling associate, in addition to the main commerce associate of most South American nations.
“Beijing has identified for some time now that relations with the US weren’t going to considerably enhance any time quickly and has tried to achieve higher entry for its corporations in nations the place the bilateral relations are friendlier,” Von Mehren stated.
Regardless of China increasing commerce with friendlier nations, it’s unclear whether or not a substitute exists for the huge volumes of Chinese language items going to the US.
In some circumstances, US restrictions on Chinese language imports have been shortly emulated in different jurisdictions.
In Might, US President Joe Biden’s administration introduced that tariffs on Chinese language electrical autos could be raised to 100%, successfully shutting the door to the US market.
The European Union introduced tariffs as excessive as 38.1 p.c on Chinese language EVs the next month.
Since then, Turkey and Canada have adopted swimsuit with related measures.
“As some nations take actions in opposition to Chinese language exports, a priority can shortly set in amongst different nations {that a} Chinese language surplus shall be dumped on their markets inflicting them to take motion as nicely,” Von Mehren stated.
Trump has additionally instructed he would impose steep tariffs on Mexico, the place Chinese language EV corporations are contemplating constructing new manufacturing amenities to avoid tariffs.
“All I’m doing is saying ‘I’ll put 200 or 500, I don’t care.’ I’ll put a quantity the place they’ll’t promote one automobile,” Trump stated earlier this month throughout an interview with Fox Information.
China has responded to the assorted commerce measures in variety, launching anti-dumping investigations into European pork and Canadian canola, for instance, and imposing export controls on uncommon parts used within the manufacturing of semiconductors.
Whereas directed at China, Trump’s tariff hikes would additionally seemingly be keenly felt within the US.
In an evaluation printed in September, the Peterson Institute for Worldwide Economics estimated that the measures would trigger a 0.4 p.c rise in inflation in 2025 and 0.23 p.c loss in GDP by 2027.
The rise in inflation and GDP losses would double if Beijing retaliates, the assume tank stated.
Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese language embassy in Washington, DC, stated there could be no winners from a brand new commerce warfare.
“Synthetic restrictions or protectionism will solely disrupt regular commerce flows and the soundness of the manufacturing and provide chain which serves the pursuits of nobody,” Liu informed Al Jazeera.
Again in Hebei, Li Wei struggles to see an upside for shoppers or employees in Trump’s plans.
“However I don’t know – these in energy do what they need,” he stated.
“And the remainder of us pay the worth.”