With fewer than 70 days left in workplace, United States President Joe Biden has formally entered the “lame duck” part of his presidency – the time period between administrations when a president’s affect and talent to form coverage dwindle as his successor prepares to take workplace.
However with the looming finish of Biden’s five-decade political profession comes a remaining probability to outline his legacy – notably in relation to overseas coverage, which Biden has lengthy seen as one among his signature points.
For these against the present administration’s unwavering help for Israel throughout its greater than yearlong conflict on Gaza, this lame duck interval is a remaining alternative “to attempt to push Biden to maneuver previous a legacy of genocide”, mentioned Annelle Sheline, a former US Division of State official who resigned in March in protest in opposition to the Biden administration’s Israel coverage.
However it’s unlikely that the administration will backtrack on its multibillion-dollar help for Israel’s conflict after a yr of deepening humanitarian disaster and large-scale proof of mass conflict crimes by which the US is deeply implicated.
“Now that there’s much less of a political value to pay, Biden may select to do good issues,” Matt Duss, government vp on the Middle for Worldwide Coverage, instructed Al Jazeera. “But it surely’s by no means been completely political; it’s ideological. That is simply how he believes the US-Israel relationship ought to work, and that’s with principally zero strain on Israel about something.”
“I’ve no hope in anyway that they’ll do something significant, constructive, useful or brave in these final months,” Duss added.
Robert Hunter, a former US ambassador to NATO, mentioned Biden ought to cease all arms shipments to Israel “tomorrow” however would by no means accomplish that.
“Biden has all through his profession been a powerful supporter of Israel,” Hunter instructed Al Jazeera. “But it surely signifies that every time he’s had a severe probability to affect issues, first as vp and now as president, he has by no means – apart from one pause [on shipments of heavy bombs] – been prepared to go in opposition to what Israel, and specifically [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, desires him to do.”
“It’s one thing that he believes in,” Hunter added.
Thirty-day help deadline passes
As Democrats assess the affect of their foreign policy on Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, there are sensible issues that the administration can – and critics argue ought to – do earlier than Trump takes workplace on January 20.
Whereas a few of these measures could also be later reversed by the Trump administration, they’d nonetheless have the flexibility to halt or a minimum of decelerate Israel’s escalating assaults on northern Gaza in addition to ship a message to the general public and the incoming administration that the US does have leverage on Israel, although it has to this point declined to make use of it.
On Tuesday, the Biden administration had the chance to make sure that Israel confronted penalties for its actions after a 30-day deadline that the administration had set on the supply of help to Gaza expired. Nevertheless, as Biden met Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the White Home, reiterating Washington’s “ironclad” help for its ally, the US said there would be no change to military assistance to Israel, even because the Center Jap nation failed to hold out the steps requested by Washington.
“There have been lots of people who mentioned issues like, ‘Nicely, politically, the Democrats should proceed to help Israel, or this might be an election concern for them,’” Sheline instructed Al Jazeera. “And now that the election is within the rear-view mirror, clearly, that is what they need. They are saying issues like, ‘We’re saddened by what’s occurring,’ however clearly, they’re not going to make use of any leverage.”
“Even now, after they received’t endure politically for it, they absolutely help every little thing that’s occurring,” she added. “In any other case, they’d really do one thing about it.”
With greater than 40,000 Palestinians killed and Israel’s wars within the area solely widening, the Biden administration selecting to withhold arms, concern extra sanctions or clear the best way for full inclusion of the state of Palestine on the United Nations would do little to reverse the immense human value of its help for Israel to this point. However these measures may pave the best way for a change in method and power the hand of the Trump administration.
“It’s actually late,” Josh Paul, one other former State Division official who resigned final yr in protest in opposition to the administration’s coverage in direction of Gaza, mentioned at a Discussion board on the Arms Commerce and Democracy for the Arab World Now occasion final week.
“That mentioned, it’s by no means too late.”
One final alternative
It’s not unusual for an exiting administration to hurry via a flurry of insurance policies and measures earlier than the brand new administration is available in.
Within the final three months of Trump’s first time period as president earlier than Biden took workplace in January 2021, the administration introduced greater than $23bn in arms gross sales to the United Arab Emirates, $500m in precision ammunition to Saudi Arabia and – with lower than one month left – $300m in small diameter bombs to Saudi Arabia. In January 2021, the Trump administration additionally declared Yemen’s Houthi motion a “overseas terrorist organisation”, a designation that kicked in simply sooner or later earlier than Trump left workplace.
The Biden administration may get equally busy if it desires to.
In August, the administration introduced $20bn in arms gross sales to Israel, and the US Senate is about to weigh in on that sale this month after Senator Bernie Sanders filed laws forcing a vote on the matter.
Biden additionally has large leeway to droop weapons transfers to Israel on his personal, Paul added. And as Trump has pitched himself because the president who will deliver “peace” to the area – even because the president-elect appoints hardline pro-Israelis to distinguished positions – halting weapons deliveries to Israel now would shift the burden of reversing course onto the following administration.
“That will be one thing that the Trump administration must make a aware resolution to show again on,” Paul mentioned, noting that “altering a coverage is fairly straightforward to do from one administration to a different, however altering a authorized dedication is considerably more durable.”
Past making use of US legal guidelines or utilizing US leverage – each steps that the Biden administration has persistently refused to take – the Biden administration may increase its sanctions on Israeli settlers, probably focusing on Israel’s most far-right ministers, like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, because the United Kingdom is considering. It may doubtlessly additionally recognise Palestinian statehood and clear the best way for the UN Safety Council to approve Palestine as a full member of the UN.
“These are to some extent blue sky,” Paul mentioned. “However they’re additionally all issues inside the president’s remit and issues that the president may do if he really needed to.”
Duss is uncertain the Biden administration will do something otherwise in its final weeks in workplace.
“Relating to imposing actual prices, actually standing up for human rights, notably Palestinian rights, I don’t anticipate something from them,” he mentioned.
“However one factor I actually would need them to do is simply inform the reality,” he added, calling on the administration, as an illustration, to launch inside experiences on the six Palestinian NGOs Israel designated as “terrorist teams” in 2021 or to publicise US assessments of the allegations Israel made in opposition to UNRWA, the UN company for Palestinian refugees, that a few of its workers had been concerned within the October 7, 2023, assaults in opposition to Israel.
“However that will require them to have the tiniest quantity of braveness,” Duss mentioned.
Each minute issues
After Republicans received the White Home and management of the US Senate and can doubtless win the Home of Representatives as properly, extra critics of US coverage in direction of Israel could belatedly discover the braveness to talk out.
“I anticipate that we’ll see Democrats abruptly recognising that genocide is incorrect who had been unwilling to criticise Biden,” Sheline instructed Al Jazeera. “I anticipate that we’ll see individuals who attempt to salvage their reputations and say, ‘We had been doing what we may on the within.’ However I feel the proof is obvious that the US had huge leverage that it didn’t use.”
It’s not simply Biden’s legacy that’s at stake.
“Notably given the election outcomes, there might be a number of senior administration officers each within the White Home and within the government businesses who want to start out actually considering exhausting about their legacy,” Paul mentioned. “Whereas it’s too late for tens of hundreds in Gaza, I feel there are nonetheless some alternatives there to salvage one thing and in addition to ship a sign to their very own occasion that it’s not too late for that occasion to alter both.”
“It’s by no means by no means too late to do the fitting factor,” he added.
That doubtlessly means saving hundreds of lives – one thing advocates stress Biden nonetheless has the ability to do.
“He could be a lame duck in US politics, however he’s undoubtedly not a lame duck because it pertains to the lives of the Palestinian folks, and day-after-day, each minute issues,” Zeina Ashrawi Hutchison, a Palestinian American political analyst, instructed Al Jazeera final week.
“It’s completely [Biden’s] accountability to right away cease the genocide in Gaza. He can do it with a cellphone name,” she added. “That is an Israel-US confederate conflict within the area, and it’s incumbent on him to really cease the genocide earlier than he leaves workplace.”