Over the previous few weeks, a number of groups holding playoff spots within the NFL have proven glimpses of who they honestly are.
Though loads can change by the tip of the season, Yardbarker is inspecting every present playoff workforce’s potential as a Tremendous Bowl contender primarily based on its roster, previous efficiency, and, to a lesser extent, future outlook.
With that in thoughts, this is a take a look at which AFC playoff groups are contenders and pretenders.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11-1)
Whether or not you like to name it luck or black magic, the Chiefs have one thing particular. Kansas Metropolis clinched a playoff spot on Friday after recovering a botched snap by the Las Vegas Raiders, who had been in discipline aim vary, with 15 seconds remaining to safe a wild 19-17 house win.
Whereas they’ve handled their share of key accidents, there isn’t any denying that the Chiefs do not look the a part of an 11-1 workforce. Not solely are they averaging their second-fewest factors per sport within the Patrick Mahomes period (24.1), however they’re additionally racking up their fewest yards per contest (341.6).
Moreover, Kansas Metropolis’s +54 level differential is the worst amongst groups which have recorded 11 wins by the primary 13 weeks of the common season since 2000, per The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia. To place that in perspective, the opposite 22 groups that achieved this feat had a mean level differential of +139.
No matter whether or not their opponent is among the NFL’s elite groups or a backside dweller, the Chiefs proceed to seek out themselves in one-score video games. On the floor, this may make Kansas Metropolis seem to be a pretender. Nonetheless, throughout final season’s title run and thru seemingly each win this yr, the Chiefs proved that they’ll rise to the event when the stakes are the best. So long as they’ve Mahomes, they will stay a Tremendous Bowl front-runner.
Verdict: Contender
Buffalo Payments (9-2)
In a season the place they had been anticipated to fall off and the New York Jets had been lastly purported to snap their prolonged playoff drought, the Payments are as soon as once more the workforce to beat within the AFC East. A fifth consecutive division title often is the most satisfying for Buffalo, contemplating it needed to overhaul its roster this previous offseason, parting methods with a number of longtime contributors.
There was no scarcity of uncertainties surrounding the Payments getting into the season, particularly relating to their receiving corps. Just one vast receiver on the roster had beforehand caught a go from QB Josh Allen, however it hasn’t been a problem for the reason that two-time Professional Bowler has performed like an MVP front-runner. In 11 video games, Allen has amassed 2,859 whole yards and 23 whole touchdowns, taking part in a lot cleaner than he has in seasons previous, tossing simply 5 interceptions.
Below Allen, the Payments offense averages the third-most factors (29.1) and Thirteenth-most yards within the league (345.3), which is especially spectacular since we have not seen the unit at full power. As soon as TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Keon Coleman return from accidents and midseason acquisition Amari Cooper continues to get acclimated; the Payments offense may probably enhance on these marks down the stretch.
It might be troublesome to place a lot inventory within the Payments as a Tremendous Bowl contender, seeing as if this season has performed out like most of their latest ones. Nonetheless, now that Allen has absolutely grasped OC Joe Brady’s system and the workforce is getting more healthy, this might lastly be the yr Buffalo will get over the hump.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
Expectations had been comparatively excessive for the Steelers after coming into the season with an upgraded quarterback room, albeit one that includes castoffs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Whereas it isn’t precisely stunning that HC Mike Tomlin is on his strategy to delivering one other successful season in Pittsburgh, it’s a bit surprising that his workforce sits atop the AFC North standings.
A calf damage Wilson suffered in coaching camp opened the door for Fields to be Pittsburgh’s beginning quarterback, and the previous Bear led the workforce to a 4-2 file. Regardless of Fields’ serviceable play, Tomlin swapped him out for the veteran Wilson, who guided the Steelers to 4 straight wins earlier than dropping a Week 12 highway contest in opposition to Cleveland.
All through all of it, the imposing Steelers protection has been the spine and identification of the workforce. Total, the unit has allowed the third-fewest factors (16.9) and seventh-fewest yards per sport (305.18) whereas rating third in turnovers pressured (22). LB T.J. Watt is having fun with one other season worthy of Defensive Participant of the 12 months honors, having notched 7.5 sacks and a league-leading four forced fumbles.
Despite the fact that Wilson has proven indicators of his former self, the Steelers offense raises doubts in regards to the workforce’s Tremendous Bowl potential, because the unit ranks 30th in crimson zone scoring effectivity. Nonetheless, with one of many NFL’s prime head coaches, in addition to a quarterback with playoff expertise and an elite protection, on their facet, the Steelers are a legit dark-horse contender.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Texans (7-5)
The posh of getting a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract allowed the Texans to aggressively add expertise this previous offseason to turn into a Tremendous Bowl contender. Initially, Houston’s investments paid off, with the workforce leaping out to a 5-1 record. Even so, it is turning into more and more obvious because the season progresses that this Texans workforce has important flaws and even lacks the spark final yr’s group possessed.
Houston has misplaced 4 of its final six video games, primarily as a consequence of its inconsistent, injury-plagued offense. QB C.J. Stroud has additionally regressed, throwing for two,875 yards, 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, 4 greater than he threw in his 2023 OROY Award-winning season. Because of this, the Texans have been one of many worst second-half offenses within the league, failing to seek out the tip zone after halftime in 5 of their final six video games.
The Texans’ shortcomings do not fall solely on Stroud, as he is taking part in in an unfavorable setting. Other than dropping his prime three wideouts to accidents at totally different factors within the yr, Stroud’s offensive line is among the league’s worst, rating twenty seventh in go block win fee (53%) and twenty eighth in run block win fee (68%).
Barring a catastrophic collapse, the Texans ought to ultimately clinch their second straight AFC South title. Nonetheless, they have not proven the mandatory flashes to be thought of one of many NFL’s prime contenders, and given their offensive woes, it does not seem to be that can change anytime quickly.
Verdict: Pretender
Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
The Ravens are a a lot totally different workforce than the one which misplaced to the Chiefs in final season’s AFC Championship Recreation, however they’re nonetheless among the finest within the NFL.
Baltimore made one of the vital important free agent acquisitions this previous offseason, signing RB Derrick Henry to kind the NFL’s greatest offensive duo alongside QB Lamar Jackson. Henry has rushed for 1,325 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns, whereas Jackson has accounted for probably the most whole yards (3,652) and touchdowns (30) amongst signal-callers.
Though the offense can look almost unstoppable at instances, Baltimore’s protection has been an issue, which is not surprising because the workforce misplaced former DC Mike Macdonald and some starters in the course of the offseason. The Ravens bolstered their secondary by the draft, however their go protection has been abysmal, permitting probably the most yards (3,569) and third-most touchdowns (22) amongst groups by the air. It’s price noting that the unit could also be turning a nook, as Baltimore has solely allowed 41 factors during the last two video games.
There isn’t any doubt that the Ravens have some brutal losses poking holes of their resume, specifically these to Cleveland, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. But when the protection continues to play at its present degree, Baltimore’s expertise outweighs any concern about its standing as a Tremendous Bowl contender.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
One of many greatest winners of the offseason, the Chargers made as substantial of a head teaching improve as a workforce may make, changing Brandon Staley with Jim Harbaugh. The 60-year-old Harbaugh has shortly modified the tradition in Los Angeles, and the workforce is firmly within the playoff image, which was sudden, given the state of the roster getting into the season.
Resulting from wage cap constraints, the Chargers had been pressured to chop ties with their two greatest vast receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Thankfully for Los Angeles, the Justin Herbert-led offense has fared simply fantastic, rating 18th in scoring and displaying steady indicators of enchancment.
Los Angeles’ protection has arguably been probably the most stunning unit within the NFL this season and a driving power behind the workforce’s success. By way of 11 video games, the Chargers have allowed the fewest factors (175) and eighth-fewest yards amongst groups (3,560), a dramatic turnaround from a unit that completed twenty fourth in scoring and twenty eighth in yardage last season. It is potential, nonetheless, that the Chargers protection’s efficiency will decline, contemplating it gave up 57 factors in its final two video games and now has three starters sidelined with accidents.
Whereas the Chargers have confirmed they’re powerful for any opponent to beat, they will not make a lot noise within the playoffs. In spite of everything, Harbaugh inherited a troublesome state of affairs, and so they’re simply 1-4 in opposition to successful groups, with the lone win coming in opposition to the Broncos. But when Los Angeles can add a real No. 1 vast receiver for Herbert this offseason, it ought to be on the brief listing of contenders to win Tremendous Bowl LX.
Verdict: Pretender
Denver Broncos (7-5)
Wilson’s disastrous Broncos tenure seems like ages in the past, which is a testomony to the stellar job HC Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix have completed this season. Payton confronted his share of criticism after pushing the nine-time Professional Bowler Wilson out of city and changing him with the 24-year-old Nix, however the Oregon product has been an ideal match for his scheme.
After a lackluster first two begins to his profession, Nix has hit his stride, rising as one of many main candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Award. Since Week 3, Nix has thrown the seventh-most touchdowns within the NFL (16) and simply two interceptions whereas posting a 65.7% completion fee. Contemplating Nix appears to be bettering with every passing begin, it is truthful to say Denver’s Nineteenth-ranked scoring offense has but to succeed in its full potential.
On the opposite facet of the ball, few groups have a extra formidable unit than the Broncos protection, which is headlined by All-Professional CB Patrick Surtain II. Along with rating first in sacks (44), third in pressures (124) and tenth in takeaways (15) this season, Denver’s protection permits the second-fewest factors (16.8) and third-fewest yards per sport (296).
Regardless of their success this season, the Broncos are one other ascending workforce that seems like they are a yr away from having the ability to mount a deep playoff run. Denver’s 16-14 Week 10 highway loss to Kansas Metropolis confirmed that it could possibly compete in opposition to the NFL’s prime groups and will possibly steal a sport. However in the end, its 1-5 file in opposition to groups that now maintain successful data is unattainable to dismiss.
Verdict: Pretender