This story initially was printed by Real Clear Wire
By Andrew Latham
Actual Clear Wire
Russia’s 2015 army intervention in Syria was a daring assertion of its nice energy ambitions, rescuing Bashar al-Assad’s regime and projecting affect within the Center East. Nevertheless, latest insurgent advances and Assad’s sudden deposal threaten to isolate Russia’s Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility, undermining each the sensible and symbolic foundations of Moscow’s international energy standing.
The autumn of Assad guarantees to be a serious blow to Russia, which is already slowed down in Ukraine. Its ramifications are prone to be felt throughout Moscow’s international coverage, which may quickly face some stark and unenviable decisions.
The Russian presence in Syria is central to the Kremlin’s broader technique of power projection. Its Mediterranean bases enable Moscow to maintain army operations within the Levant, North Africa, and past, countering U.S. affect. With the important thing metropolis of Homs having fallen to the rebels, provide routes to Khmeimim and Tartus have been severed, forcing reliance on weak air and sea routes. This may weaken Russia’s operational readiness and its potential to affect occasions in neighboring theaters, together with Africa.
Khmeimim additionally serves as a logistical hub for Russian non-public army contractors (PMCs) just like the Wagner Group, energetic in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. These contractors are central to Moscow’s efforts to develop its affect in Africa, offering safety and securing profitable financial offers. With Khmeimim remoted, sustaining these operations would turn into expensive and inefficient, decreasing Moscow’s potential to realize its geopolitical targets on the continent.
The isolation of Khmeimim and Tartus will severely constrain Russia’s potential to maintain army operations in Syria and past, undermining its potential to conduct airstrikes, reconnaissance, and rapid-response missions. PMCs, reliant on strong logistics, will face disruptions, emboldening opposition forces and exposing the fragility of Russia’s African partnerships. These setbacks will ripple by means of Moscow’s strategic calculations, undercutting its affect and financial targets.
The symbolic penalties of a insurgent victory might be much more damaging. Moscow has portrayed its intervention in Syria as an indication of its reliability as an ally and its potential to uphold the sovereignty of shopper states. The loss in Syria will puncture this narrative, exposing the bounds of Russian energy and credibility. Regional actors, together with Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, will recalibrate their perceptions of Moscow’s affect, whereas African companions would possibly pivot towards extra dependable alternate options equivalent to China or the West.
Domestically, the repercussions of a diminished position in Syria might be important. President Vladimir Putin has marketed the Syrian intervention as a triumph of Russian statecraft, portraying it as a cornerstone of Russia’s resurgence on the worldwide stage. Whereas critics of Russia’s international interventions have questioned their prices for years, the autumn of Assad may amplify these doubts in methods the extended battle in Ukraine has not. Syria’s collapse would symbolize a failure of Russia’s potential to safeguard allied regimes, putting on the narrative of strategic competence that Putin has labored to undertaking. Public perceptions of Russian energy, fastidiously curated by means of state-controlled media, may falter, creating broader political vulnerabilities. Furthermore, Syria has served as a testing floor for Russian weapons techniques, and diminished visibility within the area would weaken their attraction to consumers, additional diminishing Russia’s geopolitical leverage and financial positive factors from arms exports. The insurgent victory in Syria will resonate globally. For the US and its allies, it should validate methods to comprise Russian affect and embolden additional countermeasures. NATO may leverage Russia’s difficulties to underscore the constraints of its international attain, whereas China would possibly speed up efforts to dominate areas like Central Asia and Africa, additional sidelining Moscow in areas the place it historically competes.
Russia now faces a stark selection: escalate its army dedication to guard its strategic pursuits, equivalent to its naval facility in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim, or settle for a diminished position within the area. Escalation would goal to protect these property and reassert affect however dangers clashes with different regional powers and would pressure sources already stretched by commitments in Ukraine and Africa. Retrenchment, nevertheless, would sign a devastating blow to Russia’s credibility as a dependable guarantor of allied regimes worldwide, sending a transparent message to its companions in Africa, the Center East, and past that Moscow can’t be counted on to defend its allies in occasions of disaster. This erosion of belief would undermine Russia’s broader international technique and invite additional challenges to its affect elsewhere.
Already there may be proof Russian warships have left Tartus, elevating questions on Russia’s dedication to its Syrian bases. As Russia navigates this disaster, it should confront the bounds of its sources and the fragility of its aspirations. Nice energy standing requires not simply army would possibly however strategic resilience. The result of the Syrian battle will form the way forward for Russia’s position within the evolving worldwide order. For Moscow, the stakes couldn’t be increased.
Andrew Latham is Professor of Political Science at Macalester School and a Non-Resident Fellow at Protection Priorities.
This text was initially printed by RealClearWorld and made accessible by way of RealClearWire.