After 54 years in energy, the al-Assad household’s rule in Syria has come to an finish. On December 8, Bashar al-Assad fled the nation and sought asylum in Russia. The collapse of one of the crucial brutal regimes within the fashionable historical past of the Center East got here after simply 12 days of combating between the Syrian military and a coalition of opposition forces, and put an finish to the 13-year Syrian civil warfare.
The Syrian battle took the lives of greater than 350,000 Syrians and displaced at the least 13 million. Brutal repression by the al-Assad regime turned a peaceable revolution into an internationalised civil warfare with Russia, Iran, Turkiye and the USA as the important thing gamers.
Its collapse will inevitably rearrange the geopolitical map of the area.
Syria’s decades-long alliances
Syria established diplomatic relationship with the Soviet Union in 1944 and have become the primary Arab nation to purchase Soviet-made arms a decade later. As different Arab international locations, like Egypt, started shifting away from the Soviet orbit within the Nineteen Seventies, Hafez al-Assad’s regime in Syria remained a staunch Soviet ally.
Relations remained robust even after the collapse of the USSR as Russia retained its naval army base in Tartous. In 2004, Bashar al-Assad made his first state go to to Moscow in an try to revive the Chilly Conflict-era relationship and sought Russian help to modernise his military.
Equally, Syria’s robust ties with Iran are a long time previous. In 1979, the 2 international locations established a permanent alliance, pushed by the shared animosity in direction of the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq gave the 2 international locations another reason to shut ranks with the intention to block US makes an attempt to destabilise them.
The devastation that the US left behind in Iraq and the 2006 Lebanon warfare performed out in favour of Iran. The so-called “Shia Cresent” that stretched from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean began to take form and Syria was on the coronary heart of it.
When the Arab Spring hit Syria in 2011, Iran rushed to help its ally. Tehran interpreted the Syrian revolution as an try by Turkiye and the Gulf states to undermine its regional affect. Professional-Iranian fighters, together with members of Hezbollah, have been dispatched to combat on behalf of al-Assad, whose military was tormented by desertion.
Iran additionally offered billions of dollars in monetary help and loans to help the Syria regime. When al-Assad was on the snapping point in 2015, Iran walked the additional mile and requested Russian help.
Moscow’s intervention helped flip the tide in favour of al-Assad as he battled opposition factions supported by the US, Turkiye and Gulf international locations. It additionally helped set up a Russian army and diplomatic foothold, permitting the Kremlin to challenge energy all through the Arab world. Numerous state and non-state actors reached out to Russia, seeing it as a counterforce to US dominance or a doable supply of leverage.
As al-Assad’s narrative equating the opposition with “terrorists” succeeded in turning public opinion within the US and the West normally, Western help for the opposition dwindled. Turkiye remained the only overseas supporter and in 2017, it felt compelled to hitch the Russian-sponsored Astana format to barter a political resolution of the battle.
Within the following years, al-Assad, backed by his Russian and Iranian allies, pushed to recapture extra territory from the opposition, breaking numerous “de-escalation” agreements and ceasefires. By 2024, it regarded as if Iran and Russia had succeeded in stabilising his regime and solidifying their very own positions within the area. Arab and European states have been beginning to normalise relations with Damascus.
However an opposition offensive upended this regional stability of energy inside 12 days.
A altering geopolitical map
The fast collapse of the Syrian military surprised Russia and Iran and so they couldn’t do a lot to assist the crumbling al-Assad regime. Throughout a gathering inside the Astana format in Doha on December 7, Iranian and Russian representatives appeared resigned to accepting that the battle for Syria had been misplaced to Turkiye.
With the autumn of the al-Assad regime, Iran has misplaced a key pillar of its “Shia Crescent”. The land hall it used to arm Hezbollah and challenge its affect in Lebanon and all through the Levant has been minimize. Iran’s function within the Palestinian-Israeli battle is more likely to be diminished, because it has misplaced key bargaining chips. It would now be pressured to retreat and look inward or it could go for accelerating its effort to construct a nuclear weapon to compensate for its dwindling regional energy.
Russia too has been weakened by the autumn of al-Assad, because it thought of the battle for Syria a part of its battle with “Western imperialism”. Shedding its solely Arab ally has dented its repute as a worldwide energy – one that may have a say in regional affairs within the Center East.
Though Moscow is more likely to retain for now its air drive base in Hmeimim and its naval base in Tartous, its persevering with presence in Syria is untenable.
Turkiye, against this, has emerged because the winner from the 14-year-old Syrian civil warfare. It managed to undermine its two rivals’ positions and is now capable of exert affect over a territorial hall that hyperlinks Europe and the Gulf via Syria.
The US and the European Union have welcomed the collapse of the al-Assad regime. Each see it as a serious blow to their nemesis, Russia, in addition to Iran. European international locations hope this improvement may also help them resolve their refugee crises by having Syrians voluntarily return to their nation.
The information of al-Assad’s collapse was acquired with combined emotions in Israel. On one hand, Israel was thrilled to see the Iran-led alliance weakened by the autumn of al-Assad as this can solidify Israeli domination of the Levant.
But, the Israeli authorities doesn’t appear snug with its alternative. The brand new political energy in Damascus is more likely to exhibit higher solidarity with the Palestinians. This explains why the Israeli military launched an enormous aerial bombardment of all of Syria, searching for to destroy the Syrian strategic arms reserve. It fears that it is perhaps used towards it in a future confrontation with the brand new authorities in Damascus.
Al-Assad’s fall and the brand new regional realignment that ensued are more likely to deliver a dramatic change to the stability of energy within the Center East and we’ll solely totally perceive its implications within the years to return.