The Nigerian Labour Congress has described the drop in Nigeria’s unemployment fee launched in a report by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics on Monday as fiction, stressing that it contradicts actuality.
The NLC’s place was corroborated by the Organised Personal Sector, with the OPS stating that the report was not reflective of financial realities.
The NBS in its newest report said that Nigeria’s unemployment fee declined to 4.3 per cent within the second quarter of 2024, signalling improved labour market circumstances.
In accordance with the report, this marks a lower from the 5.3 per cent recorded in Q1 2024 and displays a gradual restoration from the 5.0 per cent in Q3 2023.
The Labour Pressure Participation Price rose to 79.5 per cent, up from 77.3 per cent within the earlier quarter, highlighting elevated workforce engagement.
The Employment-to-Inhabitants Ratio additionally confirmed important enchancment, climbing to 76.1 per cent in Q2 2024 from 73.2 per cent in Q1 2024.
This means {that a} greater proportion of the working-age inhabitants was gainfully employed in the course of the interval.
Additionally, self-employment remained dominant, accounting for 85.6 per cent of complete employment, a rise from 84 per cent within the previous quarter.
Casual employment additionally rose barely to 93.0 per cent, highlighting the financial system’s reliance on casual jobs.
City unemployment stood at 5.2 per cent, a discount from 6.0 per cent in Q1 2024.
Nevertheless, rural areas recorded a fair decrease unemployment fee of two.8 per cent, in comparison with 4.3 per cent within the earlier quarter.
This disparity highlights the continued function of agriculture and casual actions in rural employment, contrasting with the city dependence on formal and service-driven jobs.
The youth unemployment fee (ages 15–24) dropped considerably to six.5 per cent, in comparison with 8.4 per cent in Q1 2024.
The report additional revealed gender disparities, with the unemployment fee for females at 5.1 per cent, in comparison with 3.4 per cent for males.
This implies a necessity for focused gender-inclusive insurance policies to bridge the employment hole.
The report learn, “The unemployment fee is outlined because the share of the labour pressure not employed however actively looking for and obtainable for work.
“Unemployment is among the parts of labour underutilisation. The unemployment fee for Q2 2024 was 4.3 per cent, displaying a rise of 0.1 share level in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months.
“The unemployment fee amongst males was 3.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent amongst females.
“By place of residence, the unemployment fee was 5.2 per cent in city areas and a pair of.8 per cent in rural areas. Youth unemployment fee was 6.5 per cent in Q2 2024, displaying a lower from 8.4 per cent in Q1 2024.”
Time-related underemployment, which measures staff searching for extra hours, dropped to 9.2 per cent in Q2 2024 from 10.6 per cent in Q1.
Labour underutilisation metrics additionally improved, with LU2 (unemployment and time-related underemployment) lowering to 13.0 per cent from 15.3 per cent within the earlier quarter.
LU3 and LU4 metrics, which embrace potential labour pressure participation, additionally recorded declines to five.9 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively.
NLC tackles NBS
Talking with The PUNCH, the Nationwide Assistant Normal Secretary of the Nigerian Labour Congress, Chris Onyeka, criticised the newest unemployment figures launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics, labelling the report as a “voodoo doc” that fails to replicate the stark realities Nigerians face every day.
Onyeka dismissed the declare that unemployment is lowering, calling it a “fabrication designed to mislead the general public.”
He argued that the information was inconsistent with the deteriorating financial panorama characterised by manufacturing facility closures, dwindling manufacturing exercise, and rising inventories.
“Unemployment can’t be coming down in Nigeria when factories are closing outlets,” Onyeka asserted.
“It can’t be coming down when there may be rising stock and decreased shopper spending. If something, unemployment is rising,” he said.
He additional questioned the methodology behind the NBS report, describing it as a “figment of creativeness concocted by individuals who need to manipulate figures.”
In accordance with Onyeka, the shortage of alignment between the information and visual realities on the bottom undermines the credibility of the statistics company.
“As soon as knowledge doesn’t replicate actuality, it loses relevance. Sadly, the NBS has misplaced credibility because of the information they proceed spewing out,” he said.
Onyeka challenged the NBS to substantiate its claims by figuring out the sectors supposedly producing jobs. “The place are the roles coming from? Is it from employers who’re complaining of shopper resistance and slowing financial actions? It doesn’t add up,” he remarked.
Citing the financial slowdown and widespread dissatisfaction amongst employers, Onyeka insisted that the report contradicts the lived experiences of Nigerians.
He likened the scenario to what he described as “INEC-style manipulation,” a time period he used to attract parallels between perceived shortcomings in Nigeria’s election administration and the NBS figures.
“Nigerians can go to court docket in the event that they don’t just like the figures. However the reality stays: the NBS has grow to be a failed establishment, very similar to INEC within the eyes of the general public,” Onyeka concluded.
He argued concerning the accuracy of official statistics in Nigeria and referred to as for a overview of the methodologies employed by authorities companies to make sure that their knowledge precisely displays the realities on the bottom.
LCCI reacts
The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Business, Gabriel Idahosa informed The PUNCH that the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics report of the unemployment fee at 4.3 per cent within the second quarter of 2024 was a “technical enchancment” and never reflective of financial realities.
Idahosa took exception to the NBS’ unemployment fee methodology, saying “The technical enchancment within the employment fee is extra of a approach that employment is now calculated; however the actuality is that the financial system will not be wanting like an financial system the place unemployment is considerably decreasing.”
On his half, the Director of the Centre for Promotion of Personal Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf shared the identical sentiments with the LCCI President, rejecting the unemployment knowledge as “not a real reflection of the fact of the job scenario.”
Yusuf informed The PUNCH he discovered it troublesome to agree with the NBS knowledge and referred to as for a brand new methodology that displays the nation’s scenario.
“I feel we want a strategy that can replicate the fact of this surroundings significantly better than what we presently have. We have to overview the methodology or have a parallel methodology that can replicate extra on the fact that’s on the bottom.
“Employment is about making a dwelling. You’ve gotten an engagement that can’t assure a supply of livelihood, irrespective of how minimal. I’m unsure we will regard that as employment. In the event you have a look at the challenges going through the financial system and the complaints by those that are presupposed to be employers of labour, then you’ll agree with me that not lots of them are literally partaking folks,” he mentioned.
The economist argued that many types of self-employment hardly rely as significant employment as ongoing reforms have worsened their efficiency as he cited the actual sector’s third-quarter Gross Home Product figures.
“Many micro and small enterprises are struggling; that’s if they’re nonetheless in enterprise,” Yusuf retorted. “And when you additionally have a look at the GDP knowledge – effectively the GDP knowledge ideally ought to replicate the well being of the financial system – the massive sectors that usually generate jobs are slowing down.
“Agriculture simply recorded 1.14 per cent GDP development, manufacturing recorded lower than 1 per cent (a 0.92 per cent GDP development), commerce the place now we have a whole lot of casual sector gamers recorded 0.65 per cent GDP development. That’s lower than 1 per cent.
“Actual property, which is one other main supply of employment, recorded 0.68 per cent. So usually, we’re taking a look at key sectors that create jobs which can be slowing down in comparison with final quarter. So, the place are the roles coming from?”
Nevertheless, Yusuf urged the Federal Authorities and the non-public sector to contemplate create extra jobs and a sustaining surroundings for job retention.
He remarked, “I feel there’s so much that we have to do to create the surroundings for extra jobs to be created and retained by the entrepreneurs.
“For a few of these staff, they will’t even afford transportation prices to go to their locations of labor. Many SMEs are combating the alternate fee difficulty, price of transportation points, vitality points, regulatory points and challenges with the clearing of cargo. All of this stuff are depleting the quantity of jobs.”
Whereas talking on the nation’s unemployment fee, the Nationwide President of the Affiliation of Small Enterprise Homeowners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, mentioned the reported discount in Nigeria’s unemployment fee, regardless of harsh financial circumstances, may result from a number of elements.
He mentioned, “These elements embrace adjustments in development within the casual sector. Financial pressures have pushed extra folks into casual or subsistence work, equivalent to buying and selling, farming, or gig-based roles, which at the moment are categorised as metrics for employment.
“Another excuse is shifts in financial dynamics, or deliberate efforts to reclassify employment statistics. As an example, the brink for what constitutes employment (e.g., working only one hour per week) might decrease unemployment figures with out reflecting important enhancements in job high quality or revenue ranges.
“Current authorities Initiatives could possibly be one other issue. Authorities funding interventions, employment applications, or talent acquisition initiatives could create momentary or part-time jobs that rely in the direction of employment figures. Nevertheless, whereas unemployment charges are a important financial indicator, they don’t all the time seize the nuances of financial well-being, particularly in a rustic like Nigeria with a big casual sector. A extra complete image would come with metrics like revenue distribution, poverty ranges, and labour pressure participation charges.”
In the meantime, he asserted that the rise in Nigeria’s GDP regardless of widespread financial hardship could possibly be attributed to quite a lot of structural, methodological, and sector-specific elements.
He added, “GDP measures the entire financial output and doesn’t essentially replicate the distribution of wealth or the dwelling requirements of residents. One issue for the current GDP improve is the expansion in particular sectors. Sure sectors could contribute disproportionately to GDP development, even when their advantages don’t trickle right down to the final inhabitants: Examples are Oil and Fuel, Agriculture, Commerce, and Exports, which can inflate GDP figures.
“One other issue is inflation’s function in nominal GDP. Rising costs (inflation) result in a rise in nominal GDP, as the worth of products and providers seems greater. Elevated spending on necessities like meals, housing, and transportation contributes to GDP development, even when many individuals live in poverty. Additionally, authorities spending on infrastructure, social applications, or debt servicing can artificially inflate GDP with out bettering financial circumstances for many residents.”